Fall 2025 Housing Market Overview: What’s Next in Canada

As we move into Fall 2025, the Canadian housing market reflects a mix of caution and opportunity. Shifts in affordability, supply, and buyer/seller expectations are creating a landscape that’s neither fully in favour of buyers nor sellers—but somewhere in between.

Key Trends Shaping the Market

Home Sales & Price Movement

Many regions are seeing year-over-year declines in home sales—economic uncertainty continues to weigh on buyer confidence.
Pricing behaviour is mixed. Some parts of Atlantic Canada and the Prairies are experiencing modest gains; conversely, major markets in Ontario and British Columbia are seeing softening, driven by increased listings.
Overall, average national home prices are expected to drop by about 6.5% in Fall compared to last year; sales may fall by around 5% by the end of 2025.

First-Time Buyers & Other Buyer Segments

First-time buyers are less dominant than in previous years. Families, newcomers, and retirees are currently making up a larger share of market activity.
Many potential first-timers are older than earlier cohorts and more financially varied. Some have large savings, others are exploring non-conventional options to fund purchases.

Seller Sentiment & the New Expectations

Sellers today tend to be more realistic. Expectations around pricing are adjusting as market conditions shift.
There is still confidence among those planning to sell that they’ll get close to or at their asking price—though that confidence is tempered by more negotiated deals and conditional offers.

Regional Differences Matter

Regions differ significantly. The Prairies and Atlantic Canada are seeing stronger seller-market conditions in many places, with tighter supply.
In contrast, some urban centres in BC and Ontario are leaning toward buyer-friendly conditions, with longer times on market and more competition among sellers.

What Buyers & Sellers Should Keep in Mind

For buyers, this season might offer more negotiating power, especially in markets with rising inventories. Watching for small price adjustments and interest rate shifts could yield opportunities.
For sellers, aligning listing price with current market realities is more important than ever. Properties that are well presented, staged, and priced realistically are more likely to attract serious offers.
Understanding local market trends (neighbourhood, city, and regional dynamics) can make a big difference—what’s true in one metro area may be very different in the neighbouring region.

Outlook Going Forward

Looking ahead to late 2025 and early 2026:

Home prices may continue to soften in many parts of the country, especially where supply is rising and demand is cautious.
Any shifts in interest rates—drops in borrowing costs—could stimulate demand, especially among those waiting for more favourable conditions.
Regions with constrained supply are likely to fare better, at least in terms of price stability; markets with looser supply are more exposed to price corrections.

If you’re considering buying or selling a home, keeping abreast of changing market indicators—inventory levels, interest rates, regional pricing—is key. Adapting strategy to local reality rather than national averages often leads to better outcomes.

Key Trends Shaping the Market

Home Sales & Price Movement

Many regions are seeing year-over-year declines in home sales—economic uncertainty continues to weigh on buyer confidence.
Pricing behaviour is mixed. Some parts of Atlantic Canada and the Prairies are experiencing modest gains; conversely, major markets in Ontario and British Columbia are seeing softening, driven by increased listings.
Overall, average national home prices are expected to drop by about 6.5% in Fall compared to last year; sales may fall by around 5% by the end of 2025.

First-Time Buyers & Other Buyer Segments

First-time buyers are less dominant than in previous years. Families, newcomers, and retirees are currently making up a larger share of market activity.
Many potential first-timers are older than earlier cohorts and more financially varied. Some have large savings, others are exploring non-conventional options to fund purchases.

Seller Sentiment & the New Expectations

Sellers today tend to be more realistic. Expectations around pricing are adjusting as market conditions shift.
There is still confidence among those planning to sell that they’ll get close to or at their asking price—though that confidence is tempered by more negotiated deals and conditional offers.

Regional Differences Matter

Regions differ significantly. The Prairies and Atlantic Canada are seeing stronger seller-market conditions in many places, with tighter supply.
In contrast, some urban centres in BC and Ontario are leaning toward buyer-friendly conditions, with longer times on market and more competition among sellers.

What Buyers & Sellers Should Keep in Mind

For buyers, this season might offer more negotiating power, especially in markets with rising inventories. Watching for small price adjustments and interest rate shifts could yield opportunities.
For sellers, aligning listing price with current market realities is more important than ever. Properties that are well presented, staged, and priced realistically are more likely to attract serious offers.
Understanding local market trends (neighbourhood, city, and regional dynamics) can make a big difference—what’s true in one metro area may be very different in the neighbouring region.

Outlook Going Forward

Looking ahead to late 2025 and early 2026:

Home prices may continue to soften in many parts of the country, especially where supply is rising and demand is cautious.
Any shifts in interest rates—drops in borrowing costs—could stimulate demand, especially among those waiting for more favourable conditions.
Regions with constrained supply are likely to fare better, at least in terms of price stability; markets with looser supply are more exposed to price corrections.